Can Online Popularity Predict Emmy Winners?

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This post is the first of a multi-part series with our partner Sysomos, exploring how social media impacts our world.

Seth Myers Hosts The 66th Annual Prime Time Emmy AwardsOn Monday night many viewers will be tuning in to see if their favourite TV shows are also the worlds best shows when the 66th Prime Time Emmy Awards go live to air. This year’s show will be hosted by Seth Myers (of Late Night With Seth Myers and formally of Saturday Night Live) and is the biggest night of the year for those involved in the television industry and TV show fans alike.

The fans play a huge role in the TV industry because unlike movies that most people see once, fans of TV shows tune in (in most cases) once a week to catch up with their favourite characters and stories. They form a bond with these shows and anxiously wait for the next episode to air.

And social media has also played a huge role for television in the past few years. The ability to connect with millions of other people that are watching and discussing the same show you’re watching in your living room makes a TV show into an event in its own right. Social networks have deffinitely taken notice of this. Perhaps the best example is Twitter, who is usually the network that sees the most traffic around television shows as they air live, who has created a whole ad unit around being able to target people for promoted tweets that are talking about a TV show as it’s airing.

With this much invested in the social space for television, we got curious and wanted to know if the online popularity of a show can predict if it will win an Emmy. So, using our industry leading social media monitoring and analytics software, Sysomos MAP, we decided to look at talk around some TV shows that are up for Emmy’s next week to see how popular they’ve been online and compare our results to the actual winners.

We decided to focus just on specific shows for this fun study. The following will be a look at the popularity of TV shows that are up for Outstanding Drama, Outstanding Comedy and Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie. For each category we will show you the number of mentions each show received between August 20, 2013 and August 20, 2014. After looking at the numbers of mentions that each show received, we’ll make our pick for the predicted winner of the category. After Monday night we can come back to these predictions and see if they were accurate.

We now present you, without commentary, the data around each nominated show and the predicted winners;

CATEGORY: Outstanding Drama

Breaking Bad

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Downton Abbey

Game Of Thrones

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Game Of Thrones

House Of Cards

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for House Of Cards

Mad Men

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Mad Men

True Detective

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for True Detective

Side-By-Side Comparison

Sysomos MAP - Comparison of Mentions for Outstanding Drama Shows

Sysomos MAP - Popularity Over Time Comparison of Outstanding Drama Shows

AND THE WINNER IS…

Breaking Bad

CATEGORY: Outstanding Comedy

Big Bang Theory

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Big Bang Theory

Louie

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Louie

Modern Family

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Modern Family

Orange Is The New Black

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Orange Is The New Black

Silicon Valley

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Silicon Valley

Veep

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Veep

Side-By-Side Comparison

Sysomos MAP - Comparison of Mentions for Outstanding Comedy Shows
Sysomos MAP - Popularity Over Time Comparison of Outstanding Comedy Shows

AND THE WINNER IS…

Big Bang Theory

CATEGORY: Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie

American Horror Story: Coven

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for American Horror Story: Coven

Bonnie And Clyde

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Bonnie And Clyde

Fargo

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Fargo

Luther

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Luther

Treme

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for Treme

The White Queen

Sysomos MAP - Activity Summary for The White Queen

Side-By-Side Comparison

Sysomos MAP - Comparison of Mentions for Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie
Sysomos MAP - Popularity Over Time Comparison of Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie

AND THE WINNER IS…

American Horror Story: Coven

What do you think about these predictions? Can online popularity actually predict an Emmy winner, or do certain shows just lend themselves better to online talk and memes than others? Let us know in the comments.

About Sysomos/h3>

A Marketwired company, Sysomos is a leading global provider of cutting-edge social media analytics and monitoring technology for brands, businesses and agencies. Learn more about Sysomos here.

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